Probability Analysis: Tools for SPY Options Trading

Hover over any point on the chart to see the probability of expiring above that strike price!

Expected Move Formula

\( EM = S \times \sigma \times std \times \sqrt{\tfrac{DTE}{365}} \)

SPY Expected Move

Expiration Oct 02 (1D) Oct 03 (2D) Oct 06 (5D) Oct 07 (6D) Oct 08 (7D) Oct 09 (8D) Oct 10 (9D) Oct 13 (12D) Oct 14 (13D) Oct 15 (14D) Oct 17 (16D) Oct 24 (23D) Oct 31 (30D) Nov 07 (37D) Nov 14 (44D) Nov 21 (51D) Nov 28 (58D) Dec 05 (65D) Dec 12 (72D) Dec 19 (79D) Dec 26 (86D)
lower 660.353 657.94 653.151 651.908 650.764 649.70 648.70 645.996 645.172 644.379 642.873 638.236 634.266 630.738 627.53 624.569 621.805 619.204 616.739 614.391 612.146
upper 672.007 674.42 679.209 680.452 681.596 682.66 683.66 686.364 687.188 687.981 689.487 694.124 698.094 701.622 704.83 707.791 710.555 713.156 715.621 717.969 720.214
expected move 5.827 8.24 13.029 14.272 15.416 16.48 17.48 20.184 21.008 21.801 23.307 27.944 31.914 35.442 38.65 41.611 44.375 46.976 49.441 51.789 54.034
Nianguang Zhao '25G, Master's in Financial Engineering at Lehigh University | Aspiring Quant | Cleared CFA Level 1
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